اثرات خشکسالی بر کمیت و کیفیت تولید پسته در سیرجان | ||
| منابع آب و تغییر اقلیم | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 1، شماره 4، دی 1404، صفحه 13-22 اصل مقاله (1.18 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22091/wrcc.2025.14330.1023 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| محمدصادق طالبی* | ||
| گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه میبد، میبد، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| امنیت غذایی در ایران با مجموعهای از عوامل داخلی و خارجی مواجه است که آن را در معرض تهدید قرار میدهد. از یکسو، تحولات ژئوپلیتیکی، مناسبات بینالمللی، تحریمهای اقتصادی و عوامل غیراقلیمی نظیر رشد جمعیت، کاهش درآمد سرانه خانوارها و افزایش تقاضای مواد غذایی، فرآیند تأمین غذا را با چالشهایی روبرو ساختهاند. از سوی دیگر، تغییرات اقلیمی شامل افزایش دما، تغییر الگوهای بارش، کاهش بارندگی و وقوع خشکسالیهای مکرر، تهدیدی برای تولیدات کشاورزی و پایداری امنیت غذایی کشور محسوب میشوند؛ چرا که این عوامل بر عملکرد کمی و کیفی محصولات کشاورزی اثرگذارند. خشکسالی بهویژه در مناطق خشک و نیمهخشک نظیر نواحی مرکزی ایران، یکی از چالشهای بنیادین در حوزه کشاورزی بهشمار میرود. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر با رویکرد توصیفی-تحلیلی و به شیوه پیمایشی، به بررسی اثرات خشکسالی بر کمیت و کیفیت تولید پسته در شهرستان سیرجان، بهعنوان یکی از قطبهای اصلی تولید این محصول در کشور، پرداخته است. ابزار گردآوری دادهها پرسشنامهای محققساخته بوده که توسط ۵۰ نفر از کارشناسان، کشاورزان و تولیدکنندگان پسته منطقه تکمیل گردید. نتایج نشان دادند که ضریب همبستگی پیرسون برابر با 0.418 است که بیانگر وجود رابطهای مثبت و معنادار بین شدت خشکسالی و تغییرات در کمیت و کیفیت تولید پسته میباشد. همچنین، ضریب تعیین استاندارد شده معادل 0.557 محاسبه شد که نشان میدهد حدود 55.7 درصد از تغییرات مشاهدهشده در تولید پسته، قابل پیشبینی براساس شدت خشکسالی است. این یافتهها بر ضرورت اتخاذ راهکارهای مدیریتی و سیاستگذاریهای اقلیمی در راستای کاهش آسیبپذیری کشاورزی و ارتقاء تابآوری امنیت غذایی تأکید دارند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| خشکسالی؛ کمیت و کیفیت محصول؛ کولموگروف اسمیرنف؛ آزمون شاپیرو ویلک | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Effects of Drought on the Quantity and Quality of Pistachio Production in Sirjan | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mohammad Sadegh Talebi | ||
| Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Meybod University, Meybod | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Abstract Objective: A combination of internal and external factors increasingly threatens food security in Iran. On the one hand, geopolitical developments, international relations, economic sanctions, and non-climatic pressures, such as population growth, declining household income, and rising food demand, have complicated the process of food provision. On the other hand, climate change—manifested in rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, reduced rainfall, and recurring droughts—poses a more profound threat to agricultural production and the sustainability of national food security, as these factors directly and indirectly affect the quantity and quality of crop yields. Drought, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as central Iran, represents one of the most critical challenges facing the agricultural sector. Method: In this context, the present study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach using a survey method to examine the effects of drought on the quantity and quality of pistachio production in Sirjan County, a major hub for pistachio cultivation in Iran. Data were collected through a researcher-designed questionnaire completed by 50 local experts, farmers, and pistachio producers. Results: The results revealed a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.418, indicating a significant positive relationship between drought severity and changes in pistachio yield and quality. Furthermore, the standardized coefficient of determination was calculated at 0.557, suggesting that approximately 55.7% of the observed variations in pistachio production can be predicted based on drought intensity. Conclusion: These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive management strategies and climate-responsive policies to mitigate agricultural vulnerability and enhance the resilience of Iran’s food security system. Extended Abstract Background and Objective Drought is an increasingly severe environmental challenge, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, where it profoundly affects ecosystems, agriculture, and rural livelihoods. Sirjan County in Kerman Province, Iran, is highly vulnerable to this phenomenon due to its climatic conditions and economic dependence on pistachio cultivation. As one of Iran’s major export crops, pistachio production is highly sensitive to water scarcity and climatic fluctuations. Drought significantly reduces both the quantity and quality of pistachio yields by limiting water availability, causing fruit drop, smaller nut size, and lower production. These impacts not only diminish farmers’ income but also disrupt the regional economy and supply chain stability. Methodology This applied and descriptive–analytical study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative techniques. Data were collected through library research, field observations, and semi-structured interviews with local experts. The main objective was to evaluate the effects of drought on pistachio yield and quality in Sirjan County, Kerman Province. A researcher-designed questionnaire based on a five-point Likert scale was distributed among 50 pistachio farmers, orchard owners, and traders, selected using the snowball sampling method. Data were analyzed using SPSS (version 27) to identify statistical relationships between drought and production variables. Sirjan County, located in southwestern Kerman Province at an elevation of 1,735 m, covers 10,141 km² and lies within an alluvial plain surrounded by mountain ranges. Its strategic position along the Tehran–Bandar Abbas highway enhances its agricultural and economic significance. Findings Data analysis was conducted using SPSS (version 27) through descriptive and inferential statistics. Descriptive indicators, including mean, standard deviation, and frequency, summarized respondents’ demographic characteristics. Among 50 participants, 74% were male and 26% female; the majority were 30–40 years old, with varying education levels from diploma to doctoral degree. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Shapiro–Wilk tests confirmed normal data distribution (p > 0.05), validating the use of parametric tests. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (α > 0.75) indicated high instrument reliability. Inferential analysis using Pearson’s correlation and multiple regression showed a moderate, positive, and significant relationship between drought severity and pistachio production (r = 0.418, p = 0.003). The regression model was significant (F = 10.138, p < 0.05) with r = 0.418 and Adjusted R² = 0.557, revealing that 55.7% of variations in pistachio yield and quality are explained by drought. The standardized beta (β = 0.418) confirmed drought’s direct and substantial effect on production. Overall, drought was identified as a key determinant of pistachio yield and quality in Sirjan County. Increasing drought intensity leads to reduced productivity and market quality, underscoring the need for sustainable water management, resilient crop varieties, and adaptive agricultural strategies to maintain pistachio production under arid conditions. Conclusion The findings of this study clearly demonstrate the significant impact of drought on the quantity and quality of pistachio production in Sirjan County. Statistical analyses using Pearson’s correlation and multiple linear regression confirmed a positive and significant relationship between drought intensity and declines in pistachio yield and quality (r = 0.418, p < 0.05). The adjusted coefficient of determination (Adjusted R² = 0.557) indicated that approximately 55.7% of the variation in pistachio production can be explained by drought effects, emphasizing the critical role of climatic factors in agricultural performance. The results highlight the necessity of effective water resource management, drought adaptation policies, and sustainable farming strategies. Approaches such as optimized irrigation practices, crop pattern adjustment, use of drought-resistant cultivars, and adoption of modern irrigation technologies can substantially mitigate drought impacts and enhance production resilience. Overall, this study contributes to a deeper scientific understanding of the drought–production nexus and provides evidence-based insights to guide policymakers, researchers, and farmers in developing climate-resilient agricultural systems. Given the projected intensification of droughts under climate change, proactive adaptation and long-term planning are essential to sustain pistachio production, strengthen agricultural resilience, and ensure regional food security. English Extended Abstract Introduction Drought is an increasingly severe environmental challenge, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, where it profoundly affects ecosystems, agriculture, and rural livelihoods. Sirjan County in Kerman Province, Iran, is highly vulnerable to this phenomenon due to its climatic conditions and economic dependence on pistachio cultivation. As one of Iran’s major export crops, pistachio production is highly sensitive to water scarcity and climatic fluctuations. Drought significantly reduces both the quantity and quality of pistachio yields by limiting water availability, causing fruit drop, smaller nut size, and lower production. These impacts not only diminish farmers’ income but also disrupt the regional economy and supply chain stability. Method This applied and descriptive–analytical study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative techniques. Data were collected through library research, field observations, and semi-structured interviews with local experts. The main objective was to evaluate the effects of drought on pistachio yield and quality in Sirjan County, Kerman Province. A researcher-designed questionnaire based on a five-point Likert scale was distributed among 50 pistachio farmers, orchard owners, and traders, selected using the snowball sampling method. Data were analyzed using SPSS (version 27) to identify statistical relationships between drought and production variables. Sirjan County, located in southwestern Kerman Province at an elevation of 1,735 m, covers 10,141 km² and lies within an alluvial plain surrounded by mountain ranges. Its strategic position along the Tehran–Bandar Abbas highway enhances its agricultural and economic significance. Results Data analysis was conducted using SPSS (version 27) through descriptive and inferential statistics. Descriptive indicators, including mean, standard deviation, and frequency, summarized respondents’ demographic characteristics. Among 50 participants, 74% were male and 26% female; the majority were 30–40 years old, with varying education levels from diploma to doctoral degree. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Shapiro–Wilk tests confirmed normal data distribution (p > 0.05), validating the use of parametric tests. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (α > 0.75) indicated high instrument reliability. Inferential analysis using Pearson’s correlation and multiple regression showed a moderate, positive, and significant relationship between drought severity and pistachio production (r = 0.418, p = 0.003). The regression model was significant (F = 10.138, p < 0.05) with r = 0.418 and Adjusted R² = 0.557, revealing that 55.7% of variations in pistachio yield and quality are explained by drought. The standardized beta (β = 0.418) confirmed drought’s direct and substantial effect on production. Overall, drought was identified as a key determinant of pistachio yield and quality in Sirjan County. Increasing drought intensity leads to reduced productivity and market quality, underscoring the need for sustainable water management, resilient crop varieties, and adaptive agricultural strategies to maintain pistachio production under arid conditions. Conclusion The findings of this study clearly demonstrate the significant impact of drought on the quantity and quality of pistachio production in Sirjan County. Statistical analyses using Pearson’s correlation and multiple linear regression confirmed a positive and significant relationship between drought intensity and declines in pistachio yield and quality (r = 0.418, p < 0.05). The adjusted coefficient of determination (Adjusted R² = 0.557) indicated that approximately 55.7% of the variation in pistachio production can be explained by drought effects, emphasizing the critical role of climatic factors in agricultural performance. The results highlight the necessity of effective water resource management, drought adaptation policies, and sustainable farming strategies. Approaches such as optimized irrigation practices, crop pattern adjustment, use of drought-resistant cultivars, and adoption of modern irrigation technologies can substantially mitigate drought impacts and enhance production resilience. Overall, this study contributes to a deeper scientific understanding of the drought–production nexus and provides evidence-based insights to guide policymakers, researchers, and farmers in developing climate-resilient agricultural systems. Given the projected intensification of droughts under climate change, proactive adaptation and long-term planning are essential to sustain pistachio production, strengthen agricultural resilience, and ensure regional food security. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Drought, Quantity and Quality of Crop, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Shapiro-Wilk Test | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 190 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 94 |
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