بررسی عَدمِ قطعیّت در نقشه خطر طرحِ لرزهای بر اساس منحنیهای خطر و شکنندگی | ||
| پژوهش های زیرساخت های عمرانی | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 11، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 20، خرداد 1404، صفحه 1-14 اصل مقاله (7.6 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22091/cer.2024.11285.1572 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علیرضا زرّین اقبال* 1؛ حمید زعفرانی2 | ||
| 1استادیار، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه صنعتی قم، قم، ایران. | ||
| 2استاد، پژوهشگاه بینالمللی زلزلهشناسی و مهندسی زلزله، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در هر اندازهگیری مهندسی، عدم قطعیت حضور دارد؛ خواه به آن توجه شود، خواه از قلم بیفتد. اگر در برآورد بار طرح برای یک سازه، معیاری از جنس ریسک قرار داده و عدم قطعیت آن نیز محاسبه گردد، روش انجام را روش ریسکمبنا و بار طرح حاصل را بار طرح ریسکمبنا مینامند. برای نمونه، در استاندارد معتبر ASCE/SEI 43-05، در طراحی لرزهای کارخانههای هستهای، از روش ریسکمبنا برای تهیه طیف طرح لرزهای، استفاده شده است. یک لازمه در این روش، در نظرگیری عدم قطعیت، چه در مدل جنبش زمین (یعنی منحنی خطر) و چه در ظرفیت سازه (یعنی منحنی شکنندگی) است. تحقیق حاضر، نخست جزئیات این روش شامل در نظر گرفتن شکل کامل منحنی خطر زلزله و نحوه دخالت دادن پاسخ سازه مورد نظر در تعیین بار طرح لرزهای را بررسی میکند. سپس، به یک مدل احتمالی دست یافته میشود بهطوری که بتوان از آن برای برآورد عدم قطعیت در بار طرح لرزهای، بهره برد. با کمک مدل احتمالی بهدست آمده در این مقاله، نقشه عدم قطعیت موجود در زلزله طرح، برای کشور ایران، تهیه و ارائه گردید. عدم قطعیت در بار طرح لرزهای در کشور ایران، براساس اطلاعات و فرضیات موجود در مطالعه حاضر، حداقل برابر ۴۵ درصد بهدست آمد که یک مقدار قابلتوجه است. به عبارت دیگر، مشاهده شد در شتاب مبنای طرحی که در طراحی لرزهای سازهها در گستره ایران بهکار گرفته میشود، از ۴۵ تا ۹۰ درصد امکان تغییر وجود دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| خطر لرزهای؛ طراحی ریسکمبنا؛ عدم قطعیت؛ نقشه خطر؛ بارگذاری لرزهای | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating Uncertainty in Seismic Design Maps Based on Hazard and Fragility Curves | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Alireza Zarrineghbal1؛ Hamid Zafarani2 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Technology and Engineering, Qom University of Technology, Qom, Iran. | ||
| 2Professor of Earthquake Engineering & Engineering Seismology, IIEES, Tehran, IR IRAN. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| All engineering measurements carry inherent uncertainty, whether acknowledged or not. If we add a type of risk metric as well as uncertainty quantification in the procedure of establishing the seismic design load applied to the structures, we will have a risk-informed approach for the resulting design load referred to as the risk-based seismic design hazard. For example, ASCE/SEI 43-05 standard uses a risk-based approach to prepare the seismic design spectra to be applied to the nuclear power plants (NPPs). This approach necessitates the propagation of uncertainty in ground motion model (i.e., the hazard curve), as well as probabilistic distribution of structural capacity levels (i.e., the fragility curve). The present research begins with the specifics of this approach, in particular the whole shape of the earthquake hazard curve and its integration with the structural fragility curve for estimating the seismic design load. The aim is to identify for a probabilistic model that can estimate the uncertainty of seismic design loads for a variety of engineering structures. This paper presents the estimated uncertainties of seismic design loads across the Iran map using the developed probabilistic model. The uncertainty, according to the study's assumptions, is at least 45% in terms of the coefficient of variation, indicating a significant value. The estimated variability in seismic design loads in the Iran region ranges from 45% to 90%. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Seismic hazard, Risk based design, Uncertainty, Design map, Seismic loading | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1] Berberian M, Yeats RS. Tehran: An earthquake time bomb 2017. doi: 10.1130/2016.2525(04) [2] Zafarani H, Jafarian Y, Eskandarinejad A, Lashgari A, Soghrat MR, Sharafi H, Afraz-e Haji-Saraei M. Seismic hazard analysis and local site effect of the 2017 M w 7.3 Sarpol-e Zahab, Iran, earthquake. Natural Hazards. 2020 Sep;103(2): 1783-1805. doi: 10.1007/s11069-020-04054-0 [3] Iervolino I. Risk-targeted seismic design: Prospects, applications, and open issues, for the next generation of building codes. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics. 2023 Oct; 52: 3919-3921. doi: 10.1002/eqe.3999 [4] Building and Housing Research Center. Iranian code of practice for seismic resistant design of buildings. Standard No. 2800; IS 2800-05. 4th revision. Tehran, Iran: Building and Housing Research Center (BHRC); 2014. [In Persian] [5] ASCE. Minimum design loads and associated criteria for buildings and other structures (ASCE/SEI 7-22). Reston, Virginia, USA: American Society of Civil Engineers; 2022. doi: 10.1061/9780784415788 [6] Luco N, Ellingwood BR, Hamburger RO, Hooper JD, Kimball JK, Kircher CA. Risk-targeted versus current seismic design maps for the conterminous United States. SEAOC 2007 convention proceedings, 2007. [7] Zarrineghbal A, Zafarani H, Rahimian M. Towards an Iranian national risk-targeted model for seismic hazard mapping. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. 2021 Feb 1; 141: 106495. doi: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106495 [8] Turchetti F, Tubaldi E, Douglas J, Zanini MA, Dall’Asta A. A risk-targeted approach for the seismic design of bridge piers. Bull Earthquake Eng. 2023; 21: 4923-4950. doi: 10.1007/s10518-023-01717-8 [9] Naderpour H, Hoseini Vaez SR, Malekshahi N. Predicting the Behavior of Concrete Dams Using Artificial Neural Networks (Case study of Dez Dam). Civil Infrastructure Researches. 2021; 6: 123-132. doi: 10.22091/cer.2021.6898.1242 [In Persian] [10] ASCE. Seismic analysis of safety-related nuclear structures (ASCE/SEI 4-16). Reston, Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers; 2017. [11] ASCE. Minimum design loads for buildings and other structures (ASCE/SEI 7-10). Reston, Virginia, USA: American Society of Civil Engineers; 2010. [12] Luco N, Bachman RE, Crouse CB, Harris JR, Hooper JD, Kircher CA, Caldwell PJ, Rukstales KS. Updates to building-code maps for the 2015 NEHRP recommended seismic provisions. Earthquake Spectra. 2015 Dec; 31(1_suppl): S245-71. [13] ANSI/API. Seismic design procedures and criteria for offshore structures (ANSI/API Recommended practice 2EQ). Reaffirmed. 1220 L Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005: API Publishing Services; 2021. [14] ASCE. Seismic design criteria for structures, systems, and components in nuclear facilities (ASCE/SEI 43-05). Reston, Virginia, USA: American Society of Civil Engineers; 2005. [15] Vamvatsikos D, Bakalis K, Kohrangi M, Pyrza S, Castiglioni CA, Kanyilmaz A, Morelli F, Stratan A, D'Aniello M, Calado L, Proença JM. A risk-consistent approach to determine EN1998 behaviour factors for lateral load resisting systems. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. 2020 Apr 1; 131: 106008. doi: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2019.106008 [16] Douglas J, Ulrich T, Negulescu C. Risk-targeted seismic design maps for mainland France. Nat Hazards. 2013; 65: 1999-2013. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0460-6 [17] Kharazian A, Molina S, Galiana-Merino JJ, Agea-Medina N. Risk-targeted hazard maps for Spain. Bull Earthquake Eng. 2021; 19: 5369-5389. doi: 10.1007/s10518-021-01189-8 [18] Zarrineghbal A. Risk-targeted seismic design hazard. P.h.D Thesis. University of Tehran (UT), 2022. [In Persian] [19] Iranian Seismic Design Code for Petroleum Facilities (Pub. No. 038-16). 4rd ed. Iran: Ministry of Petroleum; 2023. [In Persian] [20] Şeşetyan K, Danciu L, Demircioğlu Tümsa MB, Giardini D, Erdik M, Akkar S, Gülen L, Zare M, Adamia S, Ansari A, Arakelyan A. The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. 2018 Aug; 16: 3535-3566. doi: 10.1007/s10518-018-0346-4 [21] Silva V, Crowley H, Bazzurro P. Exploring risk-targeted hazard maps for Europe. Earthq Spectra. 2015; 32: 1165-1186. doi: 10.1193/112514EQS198M [22] Kennedy RP. Performance-goal based (risk informed) approach for establishing the SSE site specific response spectrum for future nuclear power plants. Nucl Eng Des. 2011; 241: 648-656. doi: 10.1016/j.nucengdes.2010.08.001 [23] Zarrineghbal A, Zafarani H, Rahimian M, Jalalalhosseini SM, Khanmohammadi M. Risk-Targeted Seismic Design Maps with Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Tehran and Surrounding Areas. Journal of Earthquake Engineering. 2024 Oct 25; 28(14): 3925-3953. doi: 10.1080/13632469.2024.2368179
| ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 656 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 454 |
||