استفاده از سناریوهای اقلیمی متفاوت جهت پیش‌بینی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش ماهی شیربت (Arabibarbus grypus, Heckel, 1843) | ||
| زیست قوم شناسی و حفاظت تنوع زیستی | ||
| دوره 1، شماره 4، دی 1403، صفحه 37-48 اصل مقاله (946.16 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22091/ethc.2024.11056.1032 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| هادی خوش ناموند1؛ فراهم احمدزاده* 2؛ اصغر عبدلی* 3 | ||
| 1گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم‌ها، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم‌ها، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران. ایران. | ||
| 3گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم‌ها، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف: تغییر اقلیم به‌عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین تهدیدات پیش رو، دارای اثرات قابل‌توجهی روی تنوع زیستی و اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی است. در مطالعه حاضر، با استفاده از مدل‌سازی توزیع گونه‌ای (SDM)، اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش ماهی شیربت (Arabibarbus grypus, Heckel, 1843) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. مواد و روش‌ها: در این مطالعه از یک مدل تلفیقی توسط بسته Biomod2 با شش الگوریتم مختلف برای زمان حال و همچنین تحت دو سری زمانی 2070 و2090 با دو مدل خوش‌بینانه (SSP 126) و بدبینانه (SSP 585) برای زمان آینده انجام گرفت. همچنین برای ساخت مدل، از هشت متغیر اقلیمی، توپوگرافی و انسانی استفاده شد. نتایج: عملکرد پیش‌بینی مدل بر اساس سه پارامتر AUC، TSS و KAPPA از محدوده خیلی خوب تا عالی 77/0≤ بود. همچنین مهم‌ترین پارامترهای تأثیرگذار بر پراکنش گونه شیربت پارامترهای کمینه دمای سردترین ماه سال (Bio 6)، مجموع بارندگی سالانه (Bio 12) و ردپای انسانی بودند. همچنین دامنه پراکنش گونه مورد مطالعه در هر دو سناریوی خوش‌بینانه و بدبینانه برای سال‌های 2070 و 2090 میلادی، با کاهش قابل‌توجهی مواجه خواهد شد. نتیجه‌گیری: با توجه به مطالعه حاضر و مطالعات قبلی، اثرات تغییر اقلیم صورت گرفته روی ماهیان، به‌وضوح نشان داده است که گونه‌ها نسبت به تغییرات اقلیمی دارای پاسخ‌های متفاوتی از جانب خود هستند که این پاسخ‌ها، ارائه راهکارها و استراتژی‌های مدیریتی متناسب و خاص را برای هر گونه می‌طلبد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییرات اقلیمی؛ تنوع زیستی؛ مدل تلفیقی؛ حفاظت | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Using different climate scenarios to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of shabout fish (Arabibarbus grypus, Heckel, 1843) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hadi Khoshnamvand1؛ Faraham Ahmadzadeh2؛ Asghar Abdoli3 | ||
| 1Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran. | ||
| 2Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran. | ||
| 3Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Objective: Climate change, as one of the most important threats ahead, has significant effects on biodiversity and natural ecosystems. In the present study, using species distribution modeling (SDM) the effects of climate change on the spread and distribution of the Shabout fish species (Arabibarbus grypus, Heckel, 1843) was investigated. Methods: in terms of SDM, an ensemble model by the Biomod2 package with six different algorithms for the present time and also under two-time series of 2070 and 2090 with two models Optimistic (SSP 126) and pessimistic (SSP 585) were used for a future time. In addition, eight climatic, topographic, and human variables were used to build the model. Results: The results showed that the prediction performance of the model based on three parameters AUC, TSS, and KAPPA ranged from very good to excellent ≤0.77. The most important parameters affecting the distribution of shirbat species were the parameters of the minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year (Bio 6), total annual rainfall (Bio 12), and human footprints. Also, the range of distribution of the studied species in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the years 2070 and 2090 will face a significant decrease. Conclusion: The effects of climate change on the shabout species have clearly shown that the species have different responses to climate change, and these responses provide appropriate and specific management strategies for each species. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Biodiversity, Climate change, Conservation, Ensemble modeling | ||
| مراجع | ||
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